[ET Net News Agency, 30 September 2020] Guotai Junan International lowered its target
price for CNOOC (00883) to HK$8.3 from HK$8.9 but upgraded its rating from "neutral" to
"accumulate".
With the occasional resurgence of COVID-19 cases globally, the research house has yet to
observe prominent oil demand recovery trends in markets where data is timely released
(except for China).
The long-term oil demand curve could fundamentally change in the post-COVID world caused
by changes in people's behavior and the potentially accelerated energy transition.
Guotai Junan's current assumptions for 2020-2022 Brent crude oil prices are US$42/bbl,
US$48/bbl, and US$56/bbl, respectively. It raised its 2020-22 earnings forecasts by
150.3%/ 47.9%/ 21.6% to RMB24,644 mn/ RMB42,453 mn/ RMB61,738 mn, respectively, to reflect
its lower impairment estimate, higher oil price assumptions, as well as CNOOC's latest
efforts in cost reduction. (KL)