Macquarie Research believes that Hong Kong Central office rents have bottomed after seven consecutive quarters of decline of 17% and three subsequent quarters of consolidation in the past ten quarters.
The leading demand indicators for Central office space have strengthened with improving hiring intentions, declining unemployment rate and rebounding HSI, it added.
Macquarie expects Central office spot rent to grow 3% in CY2014 and accelerate to 6% in CY2015. Hong Kong retail sales growth has moderated to 6.6% in January and February 2014 due to a high base and is likely to moderate further.
However, positive growth of 4.5% in CY2014 and 3% in CY2015 should be underpinned by solid Mainland tourist arrivals growth. Macquarie has made subtle valuation downgrades for most stocks as follows:
Name Rating Target Price
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Wharf (00004) Outperform HK$66.96 (from HK$73.40)
Swire Props (01972) Outperform HK$23.60 (from HK$23.90)
Hang Lung Props (00101) Neutral HK$21.90 (from HK$22.60)
Great Eagle (00041) Outperform HK$30.34 (from HK$30.61)
Hysan Dev (00014) Outperform HK$36.21 (from HK$36.60)
The Link REIT (00823) Outperform HK$41.24 (unchanged)
Fortune REIT (00778) Neutral HK$6.24 (from HK$6.23)
Prosperity REIT (00808) Outperform HK$2.49 (from HK$2.54)
Champion REIT (02778) Underperform HK$2.90 (from HK$2.94)
Sunlight REIT (00435) Outperform HK$3.42 (from HK$3.34)
Yuexiu REIT (00405) Outperform HK$3.89 (from HK$3.90)
Hui Xian REIT (87001) Outperform HK$3.87 (from HK$4.09)