Barclays Research said the slowing in the pace of the decline in China's property sales in September had essentially narrowed to a single-digit rate despite the continued downward trend on a y/y basis.
With the effect of the more preferential mortgage environment to kick in, including a lower downpayment ratio for upgrade demand, the cheaper lending rate for first mortgages as well as more supportive housing provident fund loan policies, the house believes this should bode well for the continued improvement in the sales momentum in 4Q14. With a better October likely, this should translate into the first y/y increase in national property sales in 2014.
Meanwhile, with the PBOC's recent injection of cheaper liquidity, Barclays believes China's real estate sector will also eventually benefit from the lower financing cost in the broader economy. With the sector trading at a 45% NAV discount and P/E of 5.3x for 2015E, it expects the positives in the physical housing market to outweigh political uncertainties in 4Q14.
The house's preferred stocks remain COLI (00688), CRL (01109), Shimao (00813), GZ R&F (02777), Sunac (01918) and KWG (01813), which are all rated "overweight".