Goldman Sachs lifted its target price for Tencent Holdings (00700) to HK$929 from HK$705 and maintained its "buy" rating.
After a strong 2020 for global gaming, the research house turned incrementally more positive on Tencent's outlook for the next 3-year as it factored in evidence of a heightened pace of investments into new game companies, improved realization in advertising, and a notable portfolio strategy change marked by a major exit.
Goldman sees Tencent gaming on the cusp of a market share gain in the US$220bn (2023) global gaming market, with good prospects for WildRift in the US/China, mDnF in China, mCOD globally, a narrowing in the ARPPU spread between mobile and PC/console games and the imminent value shift in the vertical to developers over channels.
Advertising growth will be driven by both WeChat's short-form video clawing back time spent, and its improved ads tech - which could significantly improve the advertising ROI, making the platform attractive. It expects Tencent's current gap between its 40% market share in user time spent and its 15% share in China's ad spend to narrow. Goldman raised its revenue/earnings estimates for 2022 by 2%/13% to capture these changes.