Barclays Research sees both good news and bad news in the preliminary findings of the Hong Kong Property Review 2015, released by the Rating & Valuation Department (RVD).
Looking backwards, it noted that the residential vacancy rate contracted to a low of 3.8% in 2014. However, looking forwards, the latest forecast from the RVD is for residential, office and retail supply to increase 50-92% in the next two years compared with the average of the last five years.
While an increase in 2016 supply may appear distant, if demand is curbed by slowing economic growth and higher interest rates, Barclays believes the rebalancing of the supply-demand equation may result in property price adjustments.
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