Morgan Stanley said HK retail sales are likely to deteriorate further on the back of GBP, EUR and Rmb depreciation against USD.
Office and residential demand will also be impacted by weaker HK GDP and unemployment rate, the research house added.
Morgan said Chinese tourists look to travel overseas and HK outbound travel is growing driven by a stronger USD. Discretionary retail mall operators like Wharf (00004) and Hysan (00014) could continue to suffer.
Morgan is also concerned whether the HK employment rate will increase from current low level of 3.4%.
The research house said global GDP growth would likely fall below 3% in a high stress scenario, thus re-entering the danger zone for a global recession.
USD/CNY will depreciate to 6.91-6.94 by end-2016 and further to 7.20-7.27 by end-2016, under the high stress scenario. This represents a decline of 5.5% from current levels to end-2016 and another 4.8% decline in 2017.
etnet榮獲HKEX Awards 2023 「最佳表現證券數據供應商」大獎► 了解詳情
