Richard Koo, chief economist of Nomura Research Institute (NRI), sees little likelihood - barring some major natural disaster - of the kind of global financial crisis that happened in 1982 and 2008 erupting overnight.
He believes that a major financial crisis is likely to happen when three conditions are satisfied: (1) there has been a significant change in the financial environment, such as a rate hike; (2) new, difficult-to-value financial products appear; and (3) numerous financial institutions face the same problem at the same time.
Taking a look at today's situation from this perspective, Koo said that while (1) the Fed's rate hikes have certainly raised interest rates, (2) we have not seen - at least in the developed economies - the emergence of major new financial products, other than leveraged loans and ETFs. As for (3), financial institutions around the world have not been investing in the same products.
全新節目《說說心理話》青少年不可以戀愛！？真實個案講述驚心動魄經歷► 即睇
