Goldman Sachs noted the recent surge in gold prices to new all-time highs has substantially outpaced both the rise in real rates and other US dollar alternatives, like the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc.
The research house believes this disconnect is being driven by a potential shift in the US Fed towards an inflationary bias against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, elevated US domestic political and social uncertainty, and a growing second wave of COVID-19 related infections.
Combined with a record level of debt accumulation by the US government, real concerns around the longevity of the US dollar as a reserve currency have started to emerge. Goldman said it has long maintained gold is the currency of last resort, particularly in an environment like the current one where governments are debasing their fiat currencies and pushing real interest rates to all-time lows.
With more downside expected in US real interest rates, Goldman once again reiterated its long gold recommendation from March and raised its 12-month gold and silver price forecasts to US$2,300/oz and US$30/oz respectively from US$2,000/oz and US$22/oz.