《缸邊隨筆－石鏡泉》3月美減息半厘？

　　市場對美3月減息的預期時有反覆，最近的一次看淡3月加息，是在上周二(16日)美聯儲局的Chris Waller主要講：data-dependent, mini-mission-acoomplished, be careful of easing financial conditions.
　
*原話是這樣*
　
　　(1)「I am becoming more confident that we are within striking distance of achieving a sustainable level of 2% PCE inflation。」
　
　　(2)「As long as inflation doesn't rebound and stay elevated, I believe the FOMC will be able to lower the target range for the federal funds rate this year。」
　
　　(3)「This view is consistent with the FOMC's economic projections in December, in which the median projection was three 25-basis-point cuts in 2024。」
　
　　(4)「When the time is right to begin lowering rates, I believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully。」he said.
　
　　(5)「With economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2%，　I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past。」
　　
*簡譯過來及筆者的演繹如下：*
　
　　1. 有信心，PCE（個人消費開支物價指數）會在近期內達到2%水平。PCE 2%是美聯儲局所望達到的通脹水平，達此美聯儲局便會減息，所以Waller所預期的2% PCE近期可達，即今年，明年，美聯儲局定然會減息，所以減息無論是在3月或之後，美息定可減。
　
　　2. 只要通脹勢頭不反彈，美聯儲局今年內是有望減息。留意，是今年內會減息。
　
　　3. 去年12月的美聯儲局議息會預期2024年會減息三次，每次0.25厘。
　
　　4. 當到要減息之時，Waller認為美聯儲局會有序地及小心地減息。
　
　　這其實是謂美聯儲局不會急速減息，免對市場帶來衝擊。
　
　　5. 由於就業市場仍好，通脹也緩步降向2%，所以沒理由去快速減息。
　
　　總合Waller之言就是：在2024年美息是會減的，但減三次每次0.25厘，減息會緩步來。
　
　　故Waller言一出，市場立馬看扁3月會減息的盼頭，美十年債息立馬回上4%，美股也跌了，但這種Knee Jeck反應，一過了，就要回歸現實，而現實是市場竟加碼估3月會減息0.5厘。為甚麼市場有這種大差異，又估3月減更要減0.5厘，又估3月不減，全在於投資者從那個角度去看美聯儲局一定要減息之事。
　
　　時好時壞的經濟數據會導致Knee Jeck反應，對減息之預期易導致反覆，但Waller話今年可減息三次，則美息會減也不用多爭拗。投資者只用順好減息勢而行便是。
　
　　但當我們看見稍後見經濟數據不太差，但美聯儲局仍要減息，這個減息便是凶兆。筆者於1月18日在「3月減息乃凶兆」一文已言及，就是因為這凶的存在，所以市場近日便竟謂3月可減息0.5厘。
　
　　除減息外，市場亦預期美聯儲局會停止或減少QT。J.P. Morgan在其1月12日的定息投資建議中有如下闡述：
　
　　．Given the nascent discussion on slowing and stopping QT in the December FOMC minutes, and new information from Fed leadership in recent days, we re-evaluate our own projections.
　
　　．We now expect that the FOMC will have the outline of a timeline at the January meeting, communicated mid-February minutes to that meeting. We expect that this plan will be formally agreed to at the mid-March meeting and will be implemented beginning in April.
　
　　．We look for the monthly cap on the runoff of Treasury securities to be reduced to $30bn/mo(down from $60bn/mo)and we expect no change in the $35bn/mo cap on mortgages.
　
　　．We think the Fed could be targeting reserves closer to a 10% share of nominal GDP, and we envision QT concluding at the end of November, while ON RRP balances remain large enough to affect smooth functioning of money markets-even while reserves remain somewhat above most estimates of lowest comfortable level of reserves.
　
　　簡言之，是J.P. Morgan認為市場資金流動性不足，故美聯儲局要停止收水，搞不好還要QE呢？其中原由，筆者在1月18日文已述及，就是因為「凶兆」仍在，故市場仍跟著美聯儲局對著幹，認為3月會減息，而且會一減便是半厘。
　
　　不用等太久，過多兩個月便知了。《資深投資者　石鏡泉》
　
　　投資涉風險，每投資者承受風險程度不一，務必要獨立思考。筆者會因應市況而買賣。

*《經濟通》所刊的署名及/或不署名文章，相關內容屬作者個人意見，並不代表《經濟通》立場，《經濟通》所扮演的角色是提供一個自由言論平台。