BofA Merrill Lynch said Hong Kong's Chief Executive Carrie Lam's 2019 Policy Address could help lessen some pain, but will unlikely steer the local economy clear of recession, given the time lag for fiscal measures to kick in.
The research house maintained its view that growth will continue to deteriorate in 2H, as tourism and business confidence remain weak and unemployment rises.
Meanwhile, BofAML said Lam's plans to increase land supply and relax mortgage lending restrictions for first-time buyers will unlikely solve either the supply shortage or the affordability problem any time soon.
Any plan also requires persistent and dedicated enforcement over the next one to two decades to make a difference in overall demand-supply imbalance, it added. In the coming quarters, as the property market cools down, BofAML expects more supply from existing homeowners to help lower property prices and improve affordability.
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